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Paper industry: trend opportunity is not coming

Author : Date : 2012-12-13 10:50:56
 According to invest today "online analysts" (www.investoday.com.cn) for domestic nearly hundred mainstream research institutions more than 4000 analysts' earnings forecasts data statistics, comprehensive profit forecast last week (2012) adjustable high range before in 25 stock, industry distribution relative dispersion, electronic equipment and instruments to five finalists dominated the first, pharmaceutical, chemical, forestry and paper products, metals and mining, textiles and clothing each record two finalists in the second; The rest distribution in transportation infrastructure, communications equipment, business services industries of. "1025" planning, energy conservation and emission reduction and so on a series of policy is accelerated paper products of the industry reshuffle. In this issue we will focus on the.
In the first half of 2012, the market saw the paper plate material wood pulp prices rebound as scheduled, but did not wait until industry reflation, ZhiJia rose, with earnings improve these you most concerned about results. But, the market is expected to quickly turn, 2 months of short rebound on the end. Expected reflation pulp price sole picks up business essence recovery supply and demand to improve ZhiJia picks up earnings picks up, the logic of this have no problem, just the current reality to deduce the logic time longer than market expectations, "boom essence recovery supply and demand to improve the profit of the back guide link might come later.
Since 2007, work letter department, national development and reform commission and trade management departments have issued a "paper industry development policy", "the comprehensive work of energy conservation and emission reduction plan", "the pulp and paper industry standards for discharge of water pollutants", "industrial enterprise elimination of backward production capacity list", "the paper industry development" 1025 "planning", "industrial cleaner production implementation of the" 1025 "planning" and so on a series of large and small in papermaking industry planning and policy guidance, the policy guidance from industry access, organization structure, technology and equipment, and other Angle promoting China's paper industry gradually realize raw material optimization, capacity upgrade, energy conservation and emission reduction, it can be said that a series of policies on the outline of the entire industry's future development blueprint, let a lot of enterprises to see the resources, technology and equipment for the future elements such as competition in the industry of great strategic significance as well as industry reshuffle after the huge economic interests, to speed up the capacity upgrade and structure layout.
At present it production release and demand not beautiful form resonance, together with the traditional low season ZhiJia confined, paper enterprise profit in the farewell after low short-term difficult to have obviously improved. In 2012 is expected to second quarter earnings link will improve, up still faces a sharp decline. Since the second quarter, the downstream insipid needs make originally excess supply the situation worse, the Spring Festival after the beginning of price increase since 5 month duly face resistance appear callback, paper enterprise profit in the farewell low at the beginning, after climbing into the stage. Expected paper plate main company NianZhongBao 2012 net profit will still fell sharply (by around 60%). Profit is not good, the papermaking enterprise investment impulse to constraint.
From half a year's supply situation look, this wheel since 2011 began in the second quarter of the investment will be accelerated in the next six months to a year time to focus on the evolution of production capacity, the second half of 2012 supply pressure is bigger; And widely permeates the compilation of economy of paper consumption in 2012, the year of the economic slowdown will face more adverse demand environment, have risen faster down the foundation, the industry is expected to supply and demand years still nervous. Good day to think paper fruit plate overall trend of investment opportunity did not come

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